Sophisticated statistical models are used to produce estimates for demographic and health indicators even when data are limited, very uncertain or lacking. We aim to provide a standardized approach to answer the question: To what extent is a model-based estimate of an indicator of interest informed by data for the relevant population-period as opposed to information supplied by other periods and populations and model assumptions? We propose a data weight measure to calculate the weight associated with population-period data y relative to the model-based prior estimate obtained by fitting the model to all data excluding y. In addition, we propose a data-model accordance measure which quantifies how extreme the population-period data are relative to the prior model-based prediction. We illustrate the insights obtained from the combination of both measures in the estimation of modern contraceptive use.
Presented in Session 185. Statistical Demography