Unconditional age specific rates are insufficient to study disparities in the timing of life course events when prior life course experiences have varied between the categories under study. In the study of fertility, conditional fertility rates require denominators defined by parity and estimating parity-specific populations for demographic subgroups for subnational regions is difficult. The main objective of this paper is to analyze between-state variation in changing disparities in the timing of first birth. In order to do so, we develop and assess a method to estimate parity-specific birth rates for subgroups by state. Specifically, we estimate age specific risks of first birth (ASFR1) by state and year for demographic subgroups using the American Community Survey. Preliminary findings indicate that, while national-level comparisons show a convergence in ASFR1s between women with varying levels of advantage, this convergence is happening more rapidly in some states and very slowly in others.
Presented in Session 10. Fertility, Family Planning, Sexual Behavior & Reproductive Health 2