Point-Process Analysis of Modern Contraceptive Use in the Lake Victoria Region of East Africa

Herb Susmann, University of Massachusetts at Amherst
Krzysztof Sakrejda, University of Massachusetts Amherst
Chuchu Wei, University of Massachusetts at Amherst
Leontine Alkema , University of Massachusetts Amherst

National-level estimates of family planning indicators such as contraceptive use and unmet need for family planning are produced on a regular basis by the United Nations Population Division and the FP2020 initiative, using the Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET). While national level modeling can inform national discussions and focus international programs, subnational estimates for policy-relevant areas are needed to inform programming. To date, FPET estimation efforts have focused on subnational estimation for large populations. We extend the FPET model to produce estimates for smaller populations, illustrated for counties in Kenya, by extending the hierarchical structure used and capturing spatial correlation among areas where appropriate. The model is fitted to contraceptive use data at the county-level data when available, and otherwise draws on data that are available at a coarser scale (i.e. national level prevalence).

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 Presented in Session 47. Spatial Methods