Conditional Cash Transfer Policies and Cohort Fertility Developments in Brazil: Analyses Using the Bolsa Familia Program

Everton E. C. Lima , IFCH - UNICAMP
Camila Soares, IFCH - UNICAMP

We analyze the conditional cash transfer program the Bolsa Familia (BF) and its relationship with fertility in 2010 Brazil. Using census, we analyze reproductive differences between women beneficiaries versus non-beneficiaries of the BF. Results show clearly differences in cohort fertility and parity progression ratios between the two groups. The beneficiaries usually had on average a higher number of children than women not covered by this program. In addition, they anticipated their reproduction plans, especially at the 2-3 births orders, due to the conditionality from this social policy, which gives money to mothers who have until a third child from 0 to 15 years old at school. This happens even after controlling for educational gradients and regional differences. These findings contradict the recent literature that has not find effects of BF on TFRs, reinforcing the point that cohort analysis possibly fills some gaps left by previous studies of period fertility measures.

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 Presented in Session 192. Evaluation of Family Planning and Other Reproductive Health Services Using a Logic Model