Trends and Patterns of Geographic Variation of Mortality by Causes of Death for Small Areas in Brazil, 1996–2016

Bernardo L. Queiroz , Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional (CEDEPLAR)
Flávio Henrique M. de A. Freire, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte
Marcos Gonzaga, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte
Everton E. C. Lima, IFCH - UNICAMP
Emerson Baptista, Asian Demographic Research Institute

The efficient planning of public health policies requires, in advance, adequate knowledge of mortality levels, in addition to their patterns, or age structure of causes of death and their geographic characteristics. The main objective of this paper is to produce estimates of mortality by causes of deaths - neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, external causes, respiratory diseases and infectious diseases - for small areas in Brazil from 1996 to 2016 and analyze their trends and patterns. We focus on these specific causes for they represent the majority of deaths observed in the country and have an interesting variation over the life cycle. We propose a combination of traditional demographic methods (DDM) to relational models (Topals) and Bayesian statistical methods to produce the estimates and perform the analysis. We believe that the results produced by the paper are going to help to better understand the dynamics of mortality in Brazil, its spatial differentials and to help managers of health policies.

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 Presented in Session 61. Geographic Patterns of Morbidity and Mortality