Childlessness has increased in many countries in the female cohorts born after the mid-1940s, reaching levels up to 20% in some countries. Cohort-based investigations typically cover only women and are not necessarily informative of developments in the recent periods. This study explores trends and contextual determinants of childlessness of women and men in the recent periods, utilizing the increasing availability of register-based data in Europe. We explore childlessness of women and men in Finland, Norway, Netherlands and Spain, and potentially in some other countries. First, we calculate synthetic childlessness rates based on parity- and timing-adjusted total first birth rates from the early 1990s onwards by country, sub-national region and educational attainment, and validate these rates against cohort-based childlessness estimates. Second, we predict changes in these rates over time with contextual factors at the sub-national regional level. Our study provides a gendered insight into the recent developments of childlessness in Europe.
Presented in Session 113. Low Fertility and Childlessness