Exploring the Local Variation in England's Teenage Fertility Reduction, through Two Decades of Dramatic Decline

Katie Heap , University of Southampton
Ann M. Berrington, University of Southampton
Roger Ingham, University of Southampton

Teenage conception rates in England have dramatically reduced throughout the last two decades and more than halved between 2008 and 2016, mirroring U.S declines. This paper considers the decline of teenage conception rates in the wider English context of societal changes: rising post-compulsory educational aspirations; changing teenage ethnic composition; increased deprivation associated with economic recession and Government austerity post-2008; and the ten-year governmental Teenage Pregnancy Strategy (TPS). This paper aims to unpick the explanations behind teenage conceptions’ geographical variations by viewing the role of area characteristics in explaining variations in the levels of and declines in rates over time. Rates for England’s 326 Local Authority Districts (LAD) 1998-2016 are explored using random intercept linear regressions to identify variability within and between LADs. Fixed effect models explore whether alterations in LAD-level characteristics can explain the teenage conception rate declines. Variation in the proportion of teenage conceptions is included in another paper.

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 Presented in Session 85. Adolescent Fertility and Contraceptive Use