Estimating the Eligible to Naturalize Population: Developing a Robust Method

Katherine M. Condon , U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS)
Ronald E. Wilson, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS)

Estimating the eligible to naturalize (EtN) has a consequential impact on the U.S. Citizenship & Immigration Services (USCIS) outreach and resource planning efforts that help Lawful Permanent Residents (LPRs) become citizens. Beyond USCIS, EtN estimates allow local and state governments, as well as private and non-profit organizations more readily serve their immigrant populations. With USCIS’s modern data systems and detailed administrative records, we document and evaluate a more robust method to estimate a more robust number of eligible LPRs than what has been done previously. Our method assembles unique data set of all LPRs from 1973 to the present, supplemented by Census data, to which we use the demographic and geographic characteristics of several beneficiary types in the data to improve the estimating process. Our estimates will support better planning by any local, state and national organization who needs more accurate estimates of the eligible LPR population.

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 Presented in Session 3. Population, Development, & the Environment; Data & Methods; Applied Demography