Nicholas Parr , Macquarie University
Over 2010-15 the TFR was below 2.1 in almost all the More Developed Countries. 65% also had positive net immigration. For 22 countries, this paper calculates a ‘With Migration Replacement TFR’ which equates the size of the stationary population to which convergence would occur over time under constant mortality and net migration amount to current population size, and a ‘Replacement Migration’ which does so under constant fertility and mortality. The results show the With Migration Replacement TFR ranges from 0.60 for Singapore to 2.05 for Slovakia, and is below the current TFR in 14 of the 22 countries. On a per 1000 population basis ‘Replacement Migration’ is highest for Korea and lowest for France. Simple, approximate estimators of Migration Replacement TFR are proposed. The results demonstrate the importance of considering the implication of national fertility level jointly with the prevailing migration and mortality, as opposed to in isolation.
Presented in Session 80. Flash Session: Innovation in Demographic Methods