Fight or Flight: Student Mobility and Violent Crime Exposure Near Baltimore City Public Schools

Julia Burdick-Will, Johns Hopkins University
Kiara Nerenberg , Johns Hopkins University
Jeffrey Grigg, Johns Hopkins University
Faith Connolly, Johns Hopkins University

Research on residential mobility and school choice finds that families prioritize safe schools. We apply these findings to school mobility and examine whether changes in violent crime near schools are associated with the likelihood of school exit. To do so, we draw on six years (2010-11 to 2015-16) of administrative data from Baltimore City Public Schools elementary school students and incident-level crime data from the Baltimore Police Department. Using multilevel logistic regression with random school intercepts and adaptive centering, we find that students are more likely to leave a school following years with higher levels of violent crime near the school. These associations are strongest for non-free and reduced meals students and in schools with higher proficiency rates. School surveys suggest that changes in parental satisfaction in schools are strongly related to perceptions of school safety.

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 Presented in Session 72. Mobility, Activity Space Exposures, and Inequality