Using the LandCast Model With Firm Maps for Population Distribution Estimation on a Local Scale in Houston, Texas

Carrie Whitlock , Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Flooding is a significant concern with ninety percent of all natural disasters in the U.S. involving a flood (Flood Insurance Reform, 2017). This study is intended to provide a model for greater understanding of the future population distribution impact of flood risk consideration in planning and development. The ‘LandCast’ model will be used as a tool to apply a local analysis for the Houston/Harris County, Texas area to understand how consideration of floodplain maps in development can change future population distribution. Using the LandCast model, this study looks at how the geographic population distribution of Houston/Harris County might change in 2030 and 2050 if flood risk were a stronger policy consideration in future development. The intention is not to propose solutions to the flooding problem, but rather provide greater understanding to local planners and policy-makers of how the population would shift geographically if floodplain areas were excluded from future development.

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 Presented in Session 3. Population, Development, & the Environment; Data & Methods; Applied Demography