Guillaume Marois , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Patrick Sabourin, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Alain Bélanger, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique (INRS)
The objective of this paper is to investigate how improvement in educational attainment and labour force participation of disadvantaged sub-populations could impact the shape of the future labour force in the Europe Union. We used a microsimulation model called CEPAM-Mic to project the labour force population of EU28 countries. Compared to traditional projection model, CEPAM-Mic incorporates heterogeneity among different groups and allows the development of alternative scenarios where educational attainment and labour force participation of disadvantaged groups are comparable to the better advantaged groups. Removing inequalities in education attainment and in labour force participation between disadvanged groups and more advantaged ones drastically changes the future prospect of labour force size and labour force dependency ratio (LFDR) in the EU. The expected decline in the labour force size is reduced by 45%, while the expected increase in the labour force dependency ratio is narrowed by 64%.
Presented in Session 8. Economy, Labor Force, Education, & Inequality