Self-response in the 2020 Census: A Predictive Model for New York City

Annette Jacoby , New York City Department of City Planning

This paper seeks to understand New York’s mail return patterns in the 2010 census, their underlying socio-demographic associations, and how they differ from national models. It projects rates for 2020, focusing solely on changes in the demographic characteristics of neighborhoods. We develop coefficients from a two-panel difference model (2000 and 2010), which offers a high level of predictive accuracy and an understanding of what demographic indicators shape rates across time. Between 2000 and 2010, increases in mail return were associated with growth in the elderly and the Dominican populations, while growth in blacks, renters, and those with low educational attainment were associated with declines in mail return. These coefficients were applied to post-2010 demographic changes to project mail return rates for the most recent period. By highlighting how a city’s unique demographic makeup affects mail return, this paper may be relevant to other cities that mirror New York’s changing diversity.

No extended abstract or paper available

 Presented in Session 99. Optimizing Self-response in the 2020 Census