Over and Over Again: Poverty Trajectories and Extreme Rainfall in Mexico

Landy Sanchez , El Colegio de México
Rodolfo De la Torre, El Colegio de la Frontera Norte
Julio Postigo, NORC

In the last decade, hydrometeorological events accounted for nearly 92% of disasters in Mexico. Damages, however, were not uniform across the country. Our analysis shows that precipitation-related extreme events are highly concentrated and that a sizable group of municipalities experience severe rains year after year, adding to the losses of local economies and households. Some studies suggest that extreme weather has only a temporary effect on population well-being. However, most of these studies consider large, single events and not their accumulative effects. This paper addresses this issue. Using a growth curve model, we examine the impacts of recurrent extreme rains on poverty trajectories of municipalities in Mexico (2000-2015), net of other socioeconomic characteristics. We also compare the difference in the growth curve of those who received relief funds. Results suggest that extreme rainfall is associated with poverty growth, while federal aid does not have a significant effect.

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 Presented in Session 3. Population, Development, & the Environment; Data & Methods; Applied Demography