A Spatially Informed Demographic Assessment of Extreme-Heat Mortality in the United States, 1979-2011.

Bryan Jones , CUNY Institute for Demographic Research (CIDR)
Gillian Dunn, CUNY Institute for Demographic Research (CIDR)
Deborah L. Balk, CUNY Institute for Demographic Research (CIDR)
Paradorn Wongchanapai, Graduate Center, City University of New York (CUNY)

Extreme heat has been among the most deadly weather-related events in the United States, and the frequency and intensity of extreme-heat events are projected to increase over the course of this century. In this work, we examine historical patterns of extreme heat exposure and mortality in the continental United States. We examine spatial variation in the mortality response to exposure under competing approaches to quantifying the impact of heat events on mortality, and consider the contribution of key demographic and socio-economic factors in driving heat-related mortality using a national-level spatial autoregressive model and a geographically weighted regression approach. The baseline relationships established here are potentially useful to future predictions of exposure and heat-related mortality under alternative population and climate change scenarios, and may aid policy makers and planners in implementing effective adaptation and mitigation policy.

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 Presented in Session 86. Spatial Distribution of Diseases and Deaths