Demographic Analysis and Projection of Prospera’s Beneficiary Population: Understanding the Demography of the Largest Cash-Transfer Program in Mexico

Victor M. Garcia-Guerrero , El Colegio de México

The cash-transfer program PROSPERA (before known as Solidaridad, Progresa, and Oportunidades) has been subject to a large number of program evaluations and studies, but a demographic analysis of its past, current and prospective beneficiary population has never been carried out. The aim of this paper is to fill this gap in the literature by generating a prospective analysis of the demographic structure of its roster of beneficiaries. For this, we generated different scenarios in terms of coverage (considering entering and exiting the program), as well as the demographic evolution of who is currently enrolled in the program, using the Household Survey of Socioeconomic Characteristics (ENCASEH), the 2016 National Survey of Income and Expenditures (ENIGH 2016), and the roster of beneficiaries of PROSPERA. Findings show an increase of beneficiaries in older ages. The implications of a larger and older population in poverty, mainly the impact in health services, will be discussed.

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 Presented in Session 3. Population, Development, & the Environment; Data & Methods; Applied Demography