Extreme Weather and the Probability of Marriage Among Women in Bangladesh

Amanda Carrico , University of Colorado Boulder
Katharine Donato, Georgetown University
Jonathan Gilligan, Vanderbilt University

Exposure to environmental stress can influence demographic trends. However, there has been relatively little research into how climate-related shocks might influence marriage behavior. We use a series of discrete-time event history models to examine the effect of heat waves and dry spells on the probability of marriage in a given year among females in southwestern Bangladesh. We find that the intensity of dry spells is associated with an increased probability that a woman will marry in the following year, and two subsequent year of intense dry spells amplifies this risk. We also find that dry spells are associated with increased probably of entering into a local marriage, but unrelated to the probability of marriage migration.

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 Presented in Session 121. Population Processes, the Environment, and Energy