Cross-National and Subnational Fertility Across Europe

Nicholas Campisi , University of St Andrews

European fertility over the last century is often described through a pattern of national convergence and increasing importance of country borders. I use cross-sectional analysis of fertility in 1,134 regions from 20 European countries to demonstrate where gaps in convergence theory may occur in a modern context, due to economic or social ties between regions between and within countries. I first demonstrate spatial dependence in fertility estimations across Europe. I then employ geographically weighted and spatial autoregressive modelling to demonstrate regional trends in fertility and its determinants. Large clusters of spatial dependence in fertility estimates persist after considering economic and social factors. These clusters highlight subnational trends that require further consideration from researchers. The effect of national borders is more important in some areas of Europe than others. Areas with cross-national clustering are important to understanding recent fertility trends in these countries and predicting future patterns.

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 Presented in Session 1. Fertility, Family Planning, Sexual Behavior, & Reproductive Health 1