Trends in First and Second Births in Brazil

Adriana Miranda-Ribeiro , Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
Tereza Bernardes, University of Pennsylvania
Ricardo A. Garcia, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)

Brazil reached replacement level in the middle 2000’s, when first and second order births represented about 70% of all births. The main goal of this paper is to analyze trends in first and second order births in Brazil. We will analyze: (i) ASFR and MAC; (ii) tempo effect; (iii) birth intervals; (iv) parity progression ratios. Data come from the birth histories reconstructed from 1991, 2000 and 2010 Censuses. Preliminary results indicate that there was an increase in the proportion of childless women and in the proportion of women that ends the reproductive life with one child. The progression to 1st and 2nd births is declining. The interval to second birth increased and a growing proportion of women do not have the second birth within the 10-years subsequent interval. By combining information on tempo effect, PPRs and birth intervals, it’s reasonable to assume that Brazil will reach very low fertility levels.

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 Presented in Session 1. Fertility, Family Planning, Sexual Behavior, & Reproductive Health 1