Modeling Age-Specific Mortality by Detailed Age Between 0–5 Years: Results From a Log-Quadratic Model Applied to High-Quality Vital Registration Data

Michel Guillot , University of Pennsylvania
Julio E. Romero Prieto, Banco de la República, Colombia
Andrea Verhulst, University of Pennsylvania
Patrick Gerland, United Nations Population Division

Information about how the risk of death varies with age within the 0-5 age range represents critical evidence for guiding health policy. The goal of this paper is to propose a new model for summarizing regularities about how under-5 mortality is distributed by detailed age in human populations. This model is based on a newly-compiled database on under-five mortality by detailed age in countries with high-quality vital registration systems, covering a wide array of mortality levels and patterns. This model uses a log-quadratic approach, predicting a full mortality schedule between age 0 and 5 on the basis of only 1 or 2 parameters. We present applications of this model for evaluating and correcting under-5 mortality information by detailed age in countries with deficient vital registration.

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 Presented in Session 182. Age Patterns of Mortality