Demographic Components of Future Old-Age Support Ratios

Kirill F. Andreev , United Nations
Karoline Schmid, United Nations
Victor Gaigbe-Togbe, United Nations
Lina Bassarsky, United Nations Population Division

We analyzed the effects of current population structures, mortality, fertility, and international migration on changes of potential old-age support ratios (PSRs) over the period 2010-2050. Potential support ratios in the low-PSR countries are expected to be further halved over the period from 2010 to 2050. The current age structures are major factors contributing to the decline in PSRs contributing on average, 88% to the total decline. Similarly, anticipated declines in mortality will also contribute positively to the declines in PSRs, 18% on average. Net migration will contribute further 9% on average to the decline in PSR in the countries with net emigration, and -15% (increase in PSRs) in the receiving countries. Overall, trends in fertility play virtually no role on future support ratios. The large effect of age structures is of a particular importance as it could be interpreted as deferred liabilities of governments for financial support of future retirees.

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 Presented in Session 6. Health & Mortality & Aging