Reassessment of Fertility Transition in India and Its Future Prospects by Some Modelling Approach

Ajit Yadav , International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)
Priyanka Yadav, Jawaharlal Nehru University
Faujdar Ram, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)

Most countries in the developing world had high fertility and mortality in the past due to the combination of low child survival and low female education. Over time these countries, including India, have experienced fertility transition at a varying pace and many have reached the replacement level. India has also experienced fertility decline over time and its total fertility rate (TFR) has decreased from the `level of 5.2 births per woman in 1971 (Registrar General of India (RGI), 1973) to 2.3 births per woman in 2013 (RGI, 2015). This decline is not uniform across the country. There is a significant diversity within India in terms of fertility levels and pace of fertility transition. Southern India, urban areas, and higher socio-economic groups have low fertility (1.3 TFR) as compared to the North Indian states. Gompertz model show that the TFR in India reach 1.5 in 2034.

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 Presented in Session 110. Projecting Fertility in a Time of Demographic Change: Will It Rise or Fall?