Identifying Vulnerability and Resilience of Kyrgyzstan's Southern Populations in the Context of Environmental Change Within the Climate-Migration-Conflict Nexus

Chelsea Lissette Cervantes de Blois , University of Minnesota - Minnesota Population Center

Studies investigating migration as a response to developing communities’ vulnerability and resilience to climate changes have investigated the Climate-Migration-Conflict Nexus (Burrows et. al. 2015; IOM 2009). However, minimal research has focused on how the vulnerability of human populations in the face of climate variability may exacerbate regional conflict. The relative dearth of research on the risk of conflict in relationship to chronic environmental shifts is at odds with rising number of people who experience the effects of regional conflict over natural resources. This situation is more common in developing countries such as southern Kyrgyzstan, home to ethnic Uzbek and Kyrgyz communities. By applying peace and conflict theories to create and map indicators of populations most vulnerable to repeated regional conflict, this paper identifies which factors ignite a region’s vulnerability and resilience. The results of this case study fill the empirical gap between vulnerability, resilience, and migration within the climate-migration-conflict nexus.

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 Presented in Session 3. Population, Development, & the Environment; Data & Methods; Applied Demography