Kin Dependency Ratios: An Extension and Application of the Goodman Method for Estimating the Availability of Kin

Pil H. Chung , University of California, Berkeley
Monica Alexander, University of Toronto

We introduce a set of life table equations for estimating the number of living kin over ages using readily-available data on fertility and mortality. These equations extend the classic measurement strategy of Goodman et al. (1974, 1975) by offering a way to estimate kin counts under demographic conditions that may vary over time. We demonstrate a practical application of this technique: the derivation of a kin dependency ratio (KDR)— a measure of expected kin support burden— which we compare to the total age dependency ratio (TADR), a commonly-reported measure of public support burden in aging populations. We end with a discussion about the strengths and limitations of our method, and ways that future work may improve it.

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 Presented in Session 101. Family Demography: Methods and Projections