Rebecca Jones, Emory University
Solveig Cunningham, Emory University
Shivani Patel, Emory University
Sanjay Kinra, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)
Rein Houben, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)
Literature on overweight/obesity in India focuses primarily on the increasing prevalence over the previous three decades, with little attention to forecasting future trends. We aim to forecast the future prevalence of overweight/obesity in India among adults 20-69 to 2040 using a dynamic Markov model. We derive the model’s inputs from publicly available nationally representative sources. We predict that overweight/obesity prevalence will increase from 20 to 40% among women between 2010 and 2040, and from 15 to 33% among men. The 2040 prevalence is expected to be higher in urban areas compared to rural areas. The largest increase in overweight/obesity prevalence is predicted to be among 60-69-year-olds, with smaller increases in younger ages. The growing trend in overweight/obesity will have serious implications for future overweight/obesity related diseases, including diabetes, in addition to the allocation of scarce health resources, particularly in a country where undernourishment presents a large public health problem.
Presented in Session 5. Health & Mortality 1