North Dakota County Fertility, Oil Prices, and Oil Output

David Flynn

The economic changes due to tight oil and fracking are well documented, whether the area of interest is public finance, labor markets, or broader economic growth and development. Less analyzed are the changes in demographic rates induced by these changes in economic activity. Migration, typically of males in specific age ranges, is well analyzed, but demographic changes went beyond simple net migration calculations. Using county level data for fertility, oil production, and state level oil price, I estimate separate effects for changes in oil price and changes in levels of production on the crude birth rates and fertility rates for counties in North Dakota to determine the relative contributions of each to fertility changes. Counties outside the oil production area represent a natural control group in the analysis.

See paper

 Presented in Session 110. Projecting Fertility in a Time of Demographic Change: Will It Rise or Fall?