This paper aims to investigate the link between asylum and irregular migration. Many asylum seekers crossed European borders in an irregular manner during the last two years and completed their asylum procedure with a negative decision. Based on the limited number of effective orders to leave, it may be argued that a majority of rejected asylum seekers are de-facto staying in the European Union. The analysis focuses on the case of Italy. A residual method is applied subtracting the amount of asylum seekers, who have the right of residence in Italy, from the number of immigrants who entered Italian borders in an irregular manner from 2015 to 2017: the remainder amount provides the number of irregular immigrants generated by the failure of asylum procedure. Three short-term migration scenarios are settled for measuring the stock of rejected asylum seekers who are likely to remain in Italy at the beginning of 2019.
Presented in Session 7. Migration & Urbanization