Adolescent Fertility: A Multi-Temporal Subnational Perspective Across Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Alessandra Carioli , University of Southampton
Natalia Tejedor, University of Southampton
Kristine Nielsen, University of Southampton
Carla Pezzulo, University of Southampton
Jeremiah J. Nieves, University of Southampton
Greame Hornby, University of Southampton
David Kerr, University of Southampton
Heather Chamberlain, University of Southampton
Nikolaos Vesnikos, University of Southampton
Linda Pistolesi, Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University
Susana Beatriz Adamo, Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University
Andrea Gaughan, University of Louisville
Forrest Stevens, University of Louisville
William James, University of Leeds
Alessandro Sorichetta, University of Southampton
Andrew J. Tatem, University of Southampton

The evolution of a population’s age structure has long been considered to be an important predictor for the development of nations. In this respect, monitoring fertility and in particular, adolescent fertility can play a big role in helping to ensure maternal and new-born health, as highlighted by Sustainable Development Goal 3. The SDGs moral imperative of leaving no-one behind requires accurate measures that are lost when looking at national averages. Despite this, the spatial detail of fertility indicators is often of a coarse resolution and difficult to obtain, with no consistent set of subnational estimates. This work aims at providing fertility and adolescent fertility projections that cover the 2000-2020 timeframe at the finest representative subnational unit available for all low to middle-income countries employing the latest available data sources, resulting in a detailed picture of reconstructed and projected fertility dynamics to deepen our understanding of changing fertility patterns.

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 Presented in Session 110. Projecting Fertility in a Time of Demographic Change: Will It Rise or Fall?