Putting the Grandparents to Rest: False Positives in Multigenerational Mobility Research

Per Engzell, University of Oxford
Carina Mood, Institute for Futures Studies
Jan O. Jonsson , Swedish Institute for Social Research

This paper uses uniquely comprehensive and detailed administrative data on Swedish lineages to shed light on the multigenerational transmission of economic status. Substantial three-generation correlations in long-run income are found. However, the apparent influence of grandparents is almost entirely mediated by socioeconomic correlates other than income in the middle generation, including education (level and field of study), social class, occupation, and wealth. We search exhaustively for heterogeneity in the contribution of grandparents – especially, stronger persistence at the top and bottom – but uncover little influence beyond that transmitted via parents. Finally, we show how an impressive range of spurious results can be generated when data are sparser, or discretion is exerted in model selection. This does not rule out a direct influence of grandparents in contexts other than that studied here, but it does cast doubt on the potential of standard designs to distinguish such influence from model artefacts.

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 Presented in Session 7. Intergenerational Transmission of Privilege and Disadvantage