Hiram Beltran-Sanchez, University of California, Los Angeles
Alberto Palloni, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Yiyue Huangfu , University of Wisconsin-Madison
Mary McEniry, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Evidence from theories of Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD) suggest that experiencing adverse early life conditions subsequently leads to detrimental adult health outcomes. Most empirical DOHaD literature ignores the nature and magnitude of the impact of adverse early life conditions at the level of entire populations, the subsequent distortion of levels and patterns of adult health, and the ensuing load of disease and chronic illness and disability. In this paper, we use micro and macro simulation models combined with empirical estimates of incidence and prevalence of obesity, type 2 diabetes (T2D) and associated disability, to assess the magnitude of adult delayed effects on healthy life expectancy and life expectancy at older ages. Furthermore, we show how to use Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models to estimate the magnitude of delayed effects for older adults belonging to birth cohorts that experienced both adverse early conditions and rapid mortality decline.
Presented in Session 9. Formal Models and Methods for the Analysis of Mortality