Population Dynamics Strongly Influence HIV Estimates

Athena Pantazis

In a generalized epidemic, HIV is transmitted predominantly through heterosexual sex and thus is inextricably linked to fertility. Population dynamics can therefore influence HIV estimates even in scenarios with epidemic control achieved through ART interventions. This analysis uses HIV population projection models used by UNAIDS to examine the strength of the effects of population growth or decline, and fertility decline on HIV estimates. A model stable population with a standard incidence curve is used with different scenarios of PMTCT and ART intervention coverage, and levels of fertility and mortality are altered to look at the effects of population dynamics. PLHIV population estimates fluctuate as expected with population growth and decline. Timing of fertility decline can strongly influence HIV estimates, especially PMTCT need. The contribution of this analysis is to provide quantifiable examples of the effects of population dynamics on the HIV estimates, underlining the importance of accurately capturing population dynamics.

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 Presented in Session 197. Demography of Epidemics