Does Immigration Boost Native Fertility?

Christina Diaz , University of Arizona
Peter Ore, University of Arizona

Scholars who examine the relation between fertility and immigration focus on the behaviors of migrants, asking whether their fertility declines to more closely resemble those of native-born women. And while there is an acknowledgement that childbearing preferences vary among natives, few studies consider whether whiteness influences childbearing decisions. We ask if the fertility of native-born women is sensitive to changes in the local immigration population, and whether this association is moderated by the presence of local hate groups, political beliefs, and anti-immigrant sentiment. We pool data from a variety of sources, including: the American Community Survey, the Southern Poverty Law Center, CQ Voting and Elections Collection, and Google Trends. We will estimate a series of correlated random effects models that predict the probability a woman experiences a recent birth. Results will shed light on the links between fertility, local political dynamics, and racial threat.

See extended abstract

 Presented in Session 204. Spatial and Contextual Effects on Reproductive Health and Fertility