Scholars who examine the relation between fertility and immigration focus on the behaviors of migrants, asking whether their fertility declines to more closely resemble those of native-born women. And while there is an acknowledgement that childbearing preferences vary among natives, few studies consider whether whiteness influences childbearing decisions. We ask if the fertility of native-born women is sensitive to changes in the local immigration population, and whether this association is moderated by the presence of local hate groups, political beliefs, and anti-immigrant sentiment. We pool data from a variety of sources, including: the American Community Survey, the Southern Poverty Law Center, CQ Voting and Elections Collection, and Google Trends. We will estimate a series of correlated random effects models that predict the probability a woman experiences a recent birth. Results will shed light on the links between fertility, local political dynamics, and racial threat.
Presented in Session 204. Spatial and Contextual Effects on Reproductive Health and Fertility