Association of the Operation Peacemaker Fellowship in Richmond, California With City-Level Firearm and Nonfirearm Homicide and Assault: A Quasi-Experimental Study

Ellicott Matthay , Evidence for Action
Kriszta Farkas, University of California, Berkeley
Kara Rudolph, University of California, Davis
Scott Zimmerman, University of California, Berkeley
Melissa Barragan, University of California, Irvine
Dana Goin, University of California, Berkeley
Jennifer Ahern, University of California, Berkeley

Community violence is an important driver of population health and health disparities in the US, but evidence on effective community-based prevention programs is limited. The Operation Peacemaker Fellowship is an innovative and intensive, individually-tailored firearm violence prevention program in Richmond, California. We evaluated whether the program was associated with population-level reductions in firearm and nonfirearm homicides and assaults. We used a generalization of the synthetic control method, along with nationwide crime data, and statewide hospital utilization and death data, to compare observed post-intervention patterns in firearm and nonfirearm violence in Richmond to those predicted in the absence of the program. The program was associated with substantial reductions in firearm violence, but also increases in nonfirearm violence. With the exception of nonfirearm violence in crime data, results were unlikely to be explained by chance alone. Further research should examine the dynamics that might underlie such a phenomenon.

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 Presented in Session 5. Health & Mortality 1