Niger’s Demographic and Educational Future: The Last Country to Start Its Fertility Transition

Anne Goujon, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital
Patrick Sabourin, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Guillaume Marois , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

In the framework of a joint project with the government of Niger (2018), we have explored the possible demographic and educational futures of Niger at the national and regional level. The project was collaborative as the local partners took part in developing the storylines for a set of scenarios representing a large spectrum of socio-economic achievements and failures. We translated the narratives into quantitative parameters and carried out multidimensional projections by education and region to 2062. Some derived variables, such as labor force participation, were also integrated in the model. The projection results have substantial policy implications. First, regardless of the scenario, the large demographic momentum will lead to high population growth as the total fertility rate of women has been above seven children for most of the last 20 years. Second, the country will need to deal with the consequences of low investments in education, unequally distributed across regions.

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 Presented in Session 8. Economy, Labor Force, Education, & Inequality