When Danes Have Only 15 Years to Live: Implications of Linking Retirement Age With Life Expectancy

Jesus-Adrian Alvarez , Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark
Malene Kallestrup-Lamb, Institute of Economy, Aarhus University
James W. Vaupel, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and Max Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging

It is well known that life expectancy at birth has increased over time. This has created debates about how retirement age should be adjusted to changes in longevity. In Denmark, retirement age will be linked with life expectancy. The indexation rule is set so that the statutory pension age will be the age at which remaining life expectancy is 14.5 years (x15). However, the demographic implications of such rule are still unexplored. The purpose of this paper is to characterize the distribution of deaths after age x15. The analysis is performed using high-quality individual mortality data. We segregate such data into socio-economic status by using a newly developed affluence index. We look at indices of lifespan variability and reveal what sub-populations would be more disadvantaged with the new pension system rules. Finally, we associate our results with economic outcomes and unravel the implications of linking retirement age with life expectancy.

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 Presented in Session 6. Health & Mortality & Aging